August 18, 2020

What are your chances of being discovered?

Being ‘discovered’ needs two things: something to be discovered (i.e. making your work), and a way for it to be found (i.e. marketing your work). So much of modern marketing advice tells you to refine your audience, know who you’re talking to, understand your customer. But maybe there’s another way?

Jason Roberts’ concept of the luck surface area gives us a nice formula. The gist is that you increase your chances of getting lucky by doing what you love and telling people about it. It sounds deceptively simple, and it is, but it’s often easy to overlook when you’re simply just ‘trying to get noticed’.

If you’re making work and not sharing it, the probability of being ‘found’ is greatly diminished. Likewise, if you’ve only made one or two pieces and you’re sharing it like mad, the probability that the narrow range of one or two pieces will connect with the right person is also small.

A better approach then is to make as much work as you can, for yourself, and then yell about it from the rooftops while you continue making it. It may seem like a scatter-gun approach, and in some ways it is, you don’t necessarily know who will see it, and what they will like about it. But by increasing your luck surface area, and being open-minded about the opportunities that will inevitably come from it, you’ll be doing all you can. The rest is up to chance.

Other observations
January 27, 2026

Effort has value

Whether we’re aware of it or not, humans tend to be able to feel the human effort behind work.

January 20, 2026

Brahm’s first symphony is an anomaly

If it’s rare for the first thing that anyone makes to be the greatest of all time, then do we have no other choice but to keep making?

January 13, 2026

No one remembers Mike

Which two names come to mind when we think about the crew of the Apollo 11 space mission, and why isn’t one of them “Mike”?

January 6, 2026

A new year reflection not resolution

If the beginning of every years is spent anticipating the year to come, what does it mean for celebrating the year we’ve just lived?

December 30, 2025

Procrastination or rest?

How do I know if reading books, playing video games, going for walks and doing chores around the house is procrastination or rest?

View all