When I consider a risk, I tend to over-estimate them rather than under-estimate them. I suspect that’s a largely common response as a way to prioritise safety and survival. For example, when I think about skydiving, the risk seems catastrophic – worst case scenario is that I die. But, when I look at the data, what I see is a fairly low probability of death (~ 1 death every 200,000 jumps).
Because I have this tendency to overestimate risks, I’ve developed a practice of writing them down. As soon as I see them on a page, I think about them differently – they generally seem less risky, and the options I have for mitigating them seem more plentiful. By giving them a likelihood (rare → almost certain) and a consequence (minor → major) rating, they are easier to compare and separate from one another. In corporate land, they call this a risk matrix.
If I let these ideas swim circles in my head, they only continue to generate a whirlpool of doubt and uncertainty. Just like when I draw, paint or illustrate, it’s in the act of mark-making that I find clarity and confidence to know what to do next.