It’s possible to make a good decision but have a bad outcome. It’s also possible to make a bad decision and have a good outcome.
Perhaps I decide, after careful and high-quality analysis, to leave my day job and try to make it as a full-time illustrator. Before doing so, I run the numbers (so I know I can afford it), I lead with my values (so I know it was aligned with my emotional needs), and I talked it over with friends and peers who had recently done a similar thing to understand the qualitative difference it would make to my life (and I liked what I heard).
But, what if 9 months in, I discover that things aren’t working out the way I had planned. Maybe I didn’t make as much money as I thought I would because cost-of-materials suddenly shot up. Or a contract I thought was a sure thing was unexpectedly cancelled. Or I thought I’d enjoy spending long swathes of time alone but I didn’t and I realised I needed people to collaborate with more than I realised. To make ends meet, I had to agree to do work I that didn’t align with my values.
The common thing to do would be to conclude I made a bad decision. That a bad outcome was because of a bad decision. But, the outcome was mostly influenced by luck and things that could not be foreseen until experienced. So, the decision itself, given all the information I had at the time, was a good one. I suspect this happens more often than we realise.