August 18, 2020

What are your chances of being discovered?

Being ‘discovered’ needs two things: something to be discovered (i.e. making your work), and a way for it to be found (i.e. marketing your work). So much of modern marketing advice tells you to refine your audience, know who you’re talking to, understand your customer. But maybe there’s another way?

Jason Roberts’ concept of the luck surface area gives us a nice formula. The gist is that you increase your chances of getting lucky by doing what you love and telling people about it. It sounds deceptively simple, and it is, but it’s often easy to overlook when you’re simply just ‘trying to get noticed’.

If you’re making work and not sharing it, the probability of being ‘found’ is greatly diminished. Likewise, if you’ve only made one or two pieces and you’re sharing it like mad, the probability that the narrow range of one or two pieces will connect with the right person is also small.

A better approach then is to make as much work as you can, for yourself, and then yell about it from the rooftops while you continue making it. It may seem like a scatter-gun approach, and in some ways it is, you don’t necessarily know who will see it, and what they will like about it. But by increasing your luck surface area, and being open-minded about the opportunities that will inevitably come from it, you’ll be doing all you can. The rest is up to chance.

Other observations
February 24, 2026

Can I do this?

Where does the motivation for beginning mark making come from? Why would I even try in the first place?

February 17, 2026

Visibility and confidence

How might we become less reliant on other people’s reaction to our work and the confidence to make more of it?

February 10, 2026

Proof of existence

Why do I feel compelled to share my work with anyone at all? Isn’t it enough just to make it for me?

February 3, 2026

Something beyond raw materials

Some work, like some meals, stand out more than others. So what’s on the plate or canvas that goes beyond ingredients or paint?

January 27, 2026

Effort has value

Whether we’re aware of it or not, humans tend to be able to feel the human effort behind work.

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